With all the talk in the news of the Super El Niño (cue Chris Farley), it seemed like a good time to share a little bit about what this all means for Monarch.  I will preface this all with the fact that seasonal forecasts talk about trends and in no way can predict amounts or timing of snowfall.  Long range forecasts identify areas as Above Average, Equal Chances, and Below Average.  For example, under Equal Chances (which Monarch almost always falls into) there is a 33.3% chance of above average snowfall, 33.3% chance of average, and 33.3% chance of below average snowfall.

Under a super El Niño pattern, there is normally a strong Southern Jet Stream which brings heavy moisture and warm temperatures to the Southern US.  While Monarch is on the northern edge of this flow, our natural terrain provides us several advantages from other ski areas.  If the flow is a little further north, and comes through Central Colorado, there is typically abundant moisture and our high altitude helps overcome the warm temperatures.  This zonal flow with a Westerly or Southwesterly wind can create huge snow for Monarch, particularly Pano Ridge, Garfield “uppers” terrain, Outback/Shagnasty, and Mirkwood Basin. If the flow is further south through New Mexico, there is often a low pressure system that sets up over Albuquerque and pulls wind back from the East and Northeast.  This is the classic “upslope” storm that has lots of snow on the front range but not much makes it to the ski areas.  Monarch is one of the few exceptions to this rule as we can do very well on an upslope storm, particularly on Gunbarrel Ridge, Breezeway terrain, No Name Basin and the Tubing hill.  One thing insiders know is that our snow study traditionally does not read well on upslope storms which leads some people to accuse us of under reporting.  Even if the Pow Cam only reads a couple of inches, get up here.  If there’s snow in town, there will be great turns up here. Sometimes you just need to know the correct aspect to ski

While there is no knowing what this season will bring, I feel great knowing we are in a very different pattern from last season.  After last winter’s historically low snowfall, even a below average winter would seem great. Monarch’s historical records suggest that an El Niño winter is average with consistent snowfall across the season and a higher percentage of upslope storms than usual.  It may not sound sexy but average at Monarch is one hell of a great season and would feel record setting after last year. If somehow we do find ourselves in an above average season, hold on and enjoy the ride…. One of my favorite Meteorologists, Chris Tomer, released his seasonal forecast this week and it is a great watch if you want to get excited for the season, check it out here.